Using graphic modelling to identify modifiable mediators of the association between area-based deprivation at birth and offspring unemployment.

BACKGROUND: Deprivation can perpetuate across generations; however, the causative pathways are not well understood. Directed acyclic graphs (DAG) with mediation analysis can help elucidate and quantify complex pathways in order to identify modifiable factors at which to target interventions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We linked ten Scotland-wide databases (six health and four education) to produce a cohort of 217,226 pupils who attended Scottish schools between 2009 and 2013. The DAG comprised 23 potential mediators of the association between area deprivation at birth and subsequent offspring 'not in education, employment or training' status, covering maternal, antenatal, perinatal and child health, school engagement, and educational factors. Analyses were performed using modified g-computation. Deprivation at birth was associated with a 7.3% increase in offspring 'not in education, employment or training'. The principal mediators of this association were smoking during pregnancy (natural indirect effect of 0·016, 95% CI 0·013, 0·019) and school absences (natural indirect effect of 0·021, 95% CI 0·018, 0·024), explaining 22% and 30% of the total effect respectively. The proportion of the association potentially eliminated by addressing these factors was 19% (controlled direct effect when set to non-smoker 0·058; 95% CI 0·053, 0·063) for smoking during pregnancy and 38% (controlled direct effect when set to no absences 0·043; 95% CI 0·037, 0·049) for school absences. CONCLUSIONS: Combining a DAG with mediation analysis helped disentangle a complex public health problem and quantified the modifiable factors of maternal smoking and school absence that could be targeted for intervention. This study also demonstrates the general utility of DAGs in understanding complex public health problems.

Professional guideline versus product label selection for treatment with IV thrombolysis: An analysis from SITS registry.

INTRODUCTION: Thrombolysis usage in ischaemic stroke varies across sites. Divergent advice from professional guidelines and product labels may contribute. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analysed SITS-International registry patients enrolled January 2010 through June 2016. We grouped sites into organisational tertiles by number of patients arriving ≤2.5 h and treated ≤3 h, percentage arriving ≤2.5 h and treated ≤3 h, and numbers treated ≤3 h. We assigned scores of 1-3 (lower/middle/upper) per variable and 2 for onsite thrombectomy. We classified sites as lower efficiency (summed scores 3-5), medium efficiency (6-8) or higher efficiency (9-11). Sites were also grouped by adherence with European product label and ESO guideline: 'label adherent' (>95% on-label), 'guideline adherent' (≥5% off-label, ≥95% on-guideline) or 'guideline non-adherent' (>5% off-guideline). We cross-tabulated site-efficiency and adherence. We estimated the potential benefit of universally selecting by ESO guidance, using onset-to-treatment time-specific numbers needed to treat for day 90 mRS 0-1. RESULTS: A total of 56,689 patients at 597 sites were included: 163 sites were higher efficiency, 204 medium efficiency and 230 lower efficiency. Fifty-six sites were 'label adherent', 204 'guideline adherent' and 337 'guideline non-adherent'. There were strong associations between site-efficiency and adherence (P < 0.001). Almost all 'label adherent' sites (55, 98%) were lower efficiency. If all patients were treated by ESO guidelines, an additional 17,031 would receive alteplase, which translates into 1922 more patients with favourable three-month outcomes. DISCUSSION: Adherence with product labels is highest in lower efficiency sites. Closer alignment with professional guidelines would increase patients treated and favourable outcomes. CONCLUSION: Product labels should be revised to allow treatment of patients ≤4.5 h from onset and aged ≥80 years.

Horizontal schools-based health programme in rural Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Primary school children in low-income countries are at risk of many diseases and poor health affects attendance, cognition and ability to learn. Developing school health and nutrition strategies has been extensively highlighted as a global priority, with a particular focus on complex programme design. However, such programmes are relatively untested in low-income settings. METHOD: We implemented a complex school health and nutrition programme in two schools in Western Kenya over 3 years. There were numerous elements covering health policy, skills-based health education, infrastructure and disease prevention. A local non-governmental organisation, with involvement from local government and the community, performed programme implementation. Height-for-age, weight-for-age,height-for-weight, anaemia prevalence, academic performance and school attendance were the primary outcome measures. RESULTS: The programme improved nutrition, academic performance and anaemia prevalence. The number of underweight children fell from 20% to 11% (OR 0.51 95% CI 0.39 to 0.68 p=<0.01) and stunting prevalence fell from 29.9% to 20% (OR 0.59 95% CI 0.50 to 0.68 p=<0.01). Academic performance improved with a 74% reduction in odds of failing assessments (OR 0.26 95% CI 0.22 to 0.29 p=<0.01). Anaemia prevalence fell from 17.2% to 11%. The programme showed an increase in low body mass index prevalence and no effect on school attendance, the reasons for which are unclear. DISCUSSION: These results are encouraging and demonstrate that complex schools health programmes can lead to positive gains in health, nutrition and importantly academic performance. There is a need for further evaluation of comprehensive school health interventions in poor communities.